48 into 32 doesn't go
FIFA threatens to wreck a really good format
03 December 2022
Whatever you think of the politics surrounding the Qatar World Cup, the format of the tournament itself has been a great success. Eight groups of four, with the top two teams going through to the round of 16, meant that almost every match had significance. The best teams (eg Argentina) had a chance to overcome an early glitch, and only Qatar and Canada entered their last game with no prospect of getting through.
One of the best features has been the simultaneous start times of the final two matches in each group. Through the course of 90 minutes on 1st December, the prospects of Spain, Germany, Costa Rica and Japan swung regularly between qualifying and elimination.
But instead of sticking with a winning formula, the 2026 World Cup in the Americas is going to spoil it.
The number of teams participating will increase from 32 to 48. The original idea was that these 48 would be split into 16 groups of 3 teams playing in round robins, with the top two teams from each group going through to the knockout phase of 32, which would have increased the number of matches from 64 to 80, as well as ruling out having simultaneous matches final within each group.
Thankfully they scrapped this idea, and decided instead to have twelve groups of four, with the top two from each group going through alongside the eight best-placed teams in third. At least this means there will continue to be jeopardy when the last group matches are played, but there is a price to pay. The number of matches will increase from 64 in 2022 to a whopping 104 in 2026. And the duration will be 39 days, that's ten days longer than the 2022 tournament.
So why is FIFA messing with the format like this? Well, why does FIFA do anything? It's about money and politics. Countries will vote for a President who gives them a higher chance of qualifying for the biggest tournament. And more countries means more money too. It's sport that will be the loser.
*As an aside, the number of matches a team will need to play to reach the 2026 final will be 7: three in the group stage, and four in the knockout. In the 2022 World Cup it was three group matches and three knockout games before the final.
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